Teplice B vs Neratovice
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-04 · 11:00 CET
DLWLL
DLDLWThe score model made a Teplice B win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teplice B 2.30 – 1.12 Neratovice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice B win | 63.3% | 57.5% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.6% | 22.0% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Neratovice win | 17.1% | 20.4% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 61.2% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 40.5% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 58.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 41.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Teplice B 43.5 / Neratovice 27.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.