Hradec Kralove B vs Mlada Boleslav B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-04 · 10:15 CET
DDLWL
LDWWDThe score model made a Hradec Kralove B win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hradec Kralove B 1.68 – 1.30 Mlada Boleslav B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Kralove B win | 46.1% | 42.4% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 29.3% | 32.4% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 58.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 37.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 61.6% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 40.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hradec Kralove B 43.4 / Mlada Boleslav B 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.