Brozany vs Zapy
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-04 · 16:00 CET
WLDLD
DWWWDThe score model made a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brozany 1.01 – 1.91 Zapy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brozany win | 19.1% | 17.7% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 21.0% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Zapy win | 58.1% | 61.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 60.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 39.8% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 56.7% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 41.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brozany 43.7 / Zapy 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.