Banik Most-Sous vs Jablonec B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-03 · 15:00 CET
LWWLL
WDWLWThe score model made a Banik Most-Sous win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Banik Most-Sous 1.80 – 0.91 Jablonec B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banik Most-Sous win | 57.9% | 53.3% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 23.4% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Jablonec B win | 18.4% | 23.2% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 58.0% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 37.1% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 58.0% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 40.2% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Banik Most-Sous 42.7 / Jablonec B 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.