Velke Hamry vs Brozany
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-26 · 16:30 CET
LWLDL
DLLLWThe score model made a Brozany win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Velke Hamry 1.20 – 1.42 Brozany.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velke Hamry win | 31.4% | 32.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Brozany win | 41.4% | 41.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 58.2% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 37.8% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 61.3% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 40.3% | -10.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Velke Hamry 26.8 / Brozany 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Velke Hamry vs Brozany in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.