Plzen B vs Dukla Prague B
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-04 · 10:30 CET
LWWLW
LDDDLThe score model made a Plzen B win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plzen B 2.34 – 1.31 Dukla Prague B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen B win | 59.9% | 58.5% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 21.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Dukla Prague B win | 19.9% | 20.6% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.6% | 65.7% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.5% | 45.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | 63.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.6% | 45.3% | +8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plzen B 41.7 / Dukla Prague B 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.