Pribram B vs Aritma Prague
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-03 · 15:00 CET
WLDDD
LLLWDThe score model made a Pribram B win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pribram B 1.67 – 1.26 Aritma Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pribram B win | 46.3% | 51.1% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 23.9% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Aritma Prague win | 28.3% | 25.0% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 58.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 39.2% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 59.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 40.7% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pribram B 27.2 / Aritma Prague 27.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.