Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Port
Super League, China · 2026-08-14 · 13:35 CET
LLWWD
LDWLWThe score model makes an Shanghai Port win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Shanghai Port win — 53.5% vs 46.1% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 – 2.00 Shanghai Port.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 24.5% | 28.3% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 25.5% | -3.6% |
| Shanghai Port win | 53.5% | 46.1% | +7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 59.9% | +4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.9% | 39.4% | +2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 62.1% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 41.3% | +3.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wuhan Three Towns 42.9 / Shanghai Port 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.