Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Port
Super League, China · 2026-08-14 · 13:35 CET
DWDDL
WDWWDThe score model made a Shanghai Port win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 – 2.00 Shanghai Port.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 24.6% | 29.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 25.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Shanghai Port win | 53.5% | 45.0% | +8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 60.7% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.9% | 40.2% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 62.5% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 41.9% | +2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wuhan Three Towns 42.7 / Shanghai Port 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.