Henan Songshan Longmen vs Qingdao West Coast
Super League, China · 2026-08-09 · 11:00
The score model makes a Henan Songshan Longmen win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Henan Songshan Longmen 1.51 – 0.98 Qingdao West Coast.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 49.2% | 59.4% | -10.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 23.3% | +3.4% |
| Qingdao West Coast win | 24.1% | 17.3% | +6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 56.4% | -11.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 35.7% | -11.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 54.6% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Henan Songshan Longmen 43.4 / Qingdao West Coast 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.