Henan Songshan Longmen vs Qingdao West Coast
Super League, China · 2026-08-09 · 13:00 CET
LDDDD
DDWDDThe score model made a Henan Songshan Longmen win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Henan Songshan Longmen 1.52 – 0.97 Qingdao West Coast.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 49.9% | 60.1% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 23.0% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Qingdao West Coast win | 24.1% | 16.9% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 56.8% | -11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 36.3% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 54.5% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 39.1% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Henan Songshan Longmen 43.2 / Qingdao West Coast 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.