Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Super League, China · 2026-08-08 · 14:00 CET
WWDLW
LWLWDThe score model made a Chengdu Rongcheng win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 1.45 – 1.94 Chengdu Rongcheng.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun win | 28.5% | 27.6% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Chengdu Rongcheng win | 48.9% | 49.0% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 69.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 49.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 68.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 47.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yunnan Yukun 32.1 / Chengdu Rongcheng 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.