Qingdao Hainiu vs Shanghai Shenhua
Super League, China · 2026-08-08 · 13:00 CET
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WLWLWThe score model made a Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qingdao Hainiu 1.26 – 1.86 Shanghai Shenhua.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 25.6% | 21.1% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 22.4% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Shanghai Shenhua win | 51.2% | 56.5% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | 65.0% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.0% | 44.4% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 62.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 45.1% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qingdao Hainiu 42.6 / Shanghai Shenhua 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.