Lok. Sofia vs Lok. Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-10 · 16:30 CET
DLDLW
LLWLDThe score model makes a Lok. Sofia win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.3% vs 74.2% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Sofia 1.28 – 1.10 Lok. Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Sofia win | 40.0% | 43.8% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 28.1% | +0.3% |
| Lok. Plovdiv win | 31.6% | 28.1% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 45.4% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 25.8% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 50.4% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 31.4% | -0.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Sofia 45.3 / Lok. Plovdiv 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.