Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-10 · 14:00 CET
WLWDD
LDDDLThe score model makes a Botev Vratsa win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Spartak Varna win — 30.4% vs 24.0% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 1.27 – 1.05 Spartak Varna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa win | 40.9% | 46.7% | -5.8% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 29.3% | -0.6% |
| Spartak Varna win | 30.4% | 24.0% | +6.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 42.1% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 23.1% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 48.0% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 28.9% | -5.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Vratsa 45.3 / Spartak Varna 41.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.