Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-10 · 19:00 CET
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DLWDLThe score model makes a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Slavia Sofia win — 25.0% vs 19.0% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.50 – 1.00 Slavia Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv win | 48.4% | 55.2% | -6.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 25.9% | +0.8% |
| Slavia Sofia win | 25.0% | 19.0% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 47.7% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 27.8% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 49.2% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 32.5% | -3.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Plovdiv 44.7 / Slavia Sofia 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.