Arda vs Botev Vratsa
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-31 · 20:15 CET
WWLLD
WLWDDThe score model made an Arda win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arda 1.59 – 0.68 Botev Vratsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda win | 59.2% | 61.6% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.9% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Botev Vratsa win | 15.4% | 13.5% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 41.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 22.4% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 40.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 29.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arda 43.9 / Botev Vratsa 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.