CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-30 · 20:15 CET
WDWWD
WLLDDThe score model made a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.52 – 0.72 Cherno More.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia win | 56.2% | 63.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 22.7% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Cherno More win | 17.5% | 14.1% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 50.5% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.9% | 29.7% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.4% | 46.8% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 34.8% | -11.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Sofia 43.2 / Cherno More 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.