Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
LLWWW
WWWWDThe score model made a Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 0.91 – 1.69 Levski Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv win | 19.9% | 19.5% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Levski Sofia win | 55.7% | 54.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 48.0% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 27.8% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 49.7% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 33.2% | -9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Plovdiv 44.1 / Levski Sofia 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.