Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-28 · 18:00 CET
DLWDL
WDLLLThe score model made a Slavia Sofia win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.64 – 0.84 Septemvri Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia win | 56.3% | 48.8% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 29.7% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Septemvri Sofia win | 18.9% | 21.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 38.9% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 19.9% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 43.2% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 27.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Sofia 44.1 / Septemvri Sofia 41.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.