CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lok. Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-28 · 20:15 CET
LWLWW
LLWLDThe score model made a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.57 – 0.79 Lok. Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 55.7% | 61.0% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 23.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Lok. Plovdiv win | 18.8% | 15.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 48.0% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 27.9% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | 45.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 33.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA 1948 Sofia 44.3 / Lok. Plovdiv 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.