Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-24 · 20:15 CET
LWLLL
DWLWWThe score model makes an Arda win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 84.5% vs 79.4% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Plovdiv 0.91 – 1.15 Arda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Plovdiv win | 28.4% | 26.8% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 30.6% | 30.9% | -0.2% |
| Arda win | 40.9% | 42.3% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.1% | 39.2% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.5% | 20.6% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 45.7% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 27.3% | +0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Plovdiv 43.9 / Arda 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.