Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-24 · 18:00 CET
WLWDD
LLWWWThe score model made a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 1.00 – 1.39 Botev Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa win | 26.8% | 26.1% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.0% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Botev Plovdiv win | 45.6% | 44.9% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% | 45.4% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% | 25.6% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 50.7% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 31.4% | -10.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Vratsa 44.3 / Botev Plovdiv 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.