Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
DLLLW
DWWWWThe score model makes an CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 51.8% vs 49.7% implied (+2.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 0.88 – 1.86 CSKA 1948 Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia win | 17.1% | 15.5% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.6% | -0.9% |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 60.2% | 60.9% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 49.7% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 48.2% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 34.0% | -1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Septemvri Sofia 41.1 / CSKA 1948 Sofia 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.