Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
WDLLL
LWLWWThe score model made a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 0.88 – 1.85 CSKA 1948 Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia win | 17.1% | 16.4% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.8% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 59.8% | 59.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 50.0% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 29.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 48.6% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 34.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Septemvri Sofia 40.8 / CSKA 1948 Sofia 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.