Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-22 · 20:15 CET
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LDDDLThe score model made a Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome at 77%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 6:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levski Sofia 2.42 – 0.64 Spartak Varna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia win | 76.6% | 74.6% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.7% | 16.7% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Spartak Varna win | 7.7% | 8.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 56.6% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 35.2% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 41.8% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 38.7% | -5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levski Sofia 42.9 / Spartak Varna 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.