CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-16 · 18:00 CET
WDWWD
WLWDDThe score model made a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 64%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.69 – 0.57 Botev Vratsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia win | 64.4% | 69.6% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 20.5% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Botev Vratsa win | 11.7% | 10.0% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 50.5% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 29.7% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 35.7% | 42.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 34.4% | -13.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Sofia 43.4 / Botev Vratsa 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.