CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-16 · 18:00 CET
LDWWW
WDLLLThe score model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 79.2% vs 64.7% implied (+14.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.69 – 0.57 Botev Vratsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia win | 64.2% | 71.2% | -7.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 19.3% | +4.7% |
| Botev Vratsa win | 11.8% | 9.6% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 51.7% | -12.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 30.6% | -11.3% |
| Both teams to score | 35.9% | 41.1% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 35.3% | -14.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Sofia 43.6 / Botev Vratsa 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.