Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
WDLDW
DWWWWThe score model makes an Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.6% vs 65.6% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 0.79 – 1.70 Levski Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia win | 16.9% | 11.9% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 21.6% | +3.0% |
| Levski Sofia win | 58.6% | 66.5% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 50.0% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 29.5% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 43.6% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 34.4% | -11.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Sofia 44.5 / Levski Sofia 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.