Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-02 · 19:00 CET
DLWDL
WWWWDThe score model made a Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 0.79 – 1.72 Levski Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia win | 16.7% | 10.7% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 20.5% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Levski Sofia win | 59.4% | 68.8% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 50.7% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 29.9% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 43.0% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 34.7% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Sofia 44.6 / Levski Sofia 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.