Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-15 · 20:15 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a Ludogorets win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ludogorets 2.05 – 0.72 Botev Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets win | 68.0% | 59.0% | +9.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 23.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Botev Plovdiv win | 11.7% | 17.7% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 55.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 34.8% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 54.2% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 38.3% | -8.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ludogorets 43.8 / Botev Plovdiv 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.