Fortaleza vs CRB

Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-12 · 21:00 CET

DDWDW

2 : 2

full-time · HT 2:1

xG 1.43 – 0.85 · H 1.88 · X 3.40 · A 4.01

LWLWD

The score model made a Fortaleza win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.

Scoreline probabilities

1:014.5%

1:111.8%

2:010.4%

0:09.7%

2:18.8%

0:18.5%

Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.

First goal · head-to-head

0–1515–3030–4545–6060–7575–90

Fortaleza (30)CRB (30)

2026-10-12 · Fortaleza – CRB2:2

2026-06-21 · CRB – Fortaleza1:1

Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)

One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.43 – 0.85 CRB.

Market	Data %	Implied	Divergence	Result
Fortaleza win	51.0%	49.5%	+1.6%	✗
Draw	26.6%	27.3%	-0.8%	✓
CRB win	22.4%	23.2%	-0.8%	✗
Over 1.5 goals	66.3%	—	—	✓
Over 2.5 goals	39.9%	47.4%	-7.5%	✓
Over 3.5 goals	19.7%	26.8%	-7.1%	✓
Both teams to score	43.3%	50.4%	-7.1%	✓
HT over 0.5 goals	67.0%	—	—	✓
HT over 1.5 goals	33.6%	34.4%	-0.8%	✓

Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fortaleza 26.7 / CRB 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.

Averaged bookmaker prices: home 1.88, draw 3.40, away 4.01; Over 2.5 1.99, Under 2.5 1.79; HT Over 1.5 2.71, HT Under 1.5 1.42.

How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.