Criciuma vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-14 · 00:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.49 – 0.60 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 59.3% | 70.6% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 19.9% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| America MG win | 15.1% | 9.5% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.8% | 50.9% | -16.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.0% | 29.7% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.7% | 41.3% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 35.0% | -12.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 48.7 / America MG 52.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.