Juventude vs Sao Bernardo
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · 21:00 CET
LWWWD
WDWLDThe score model made a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventude 1.25 – 0.66 Sao Bernardo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 50.7% | 60.1% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.9% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Sao Bernardo win | 19.9% | 15.0% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.8% | 43.6% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.7% | 23.9% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 34.3% | 42.9% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.7% | 30.3% | -10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventude 30.9 / Sao Bernardo 26.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.