Cuiaba vs Avai
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · 23:30 CET
WLWDL
LLLWWThe score model made a Cuiaba win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.27 – 0.74 Avai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba win | 49.3% | 56.9% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Avai win | 21.9% | 16.9% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.7% | 42.6% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.5% | 23.0% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.5% | 43.9% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 29.4% | -8.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cuiaba 43.4 / Avai 55.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.