Nautico vs Novorizontino
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-10 · 00:30 CET
LWDLL
LDWWWThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.06 – 1.28 Novorizontino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 30.7% | 20.8% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.1% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Novorizontino win | 41.8% | 54.1% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 53.4% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 32.9% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 54.4% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 36.6% | -8.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nautico 27.1 / Novorizontino 56.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.