Ceara vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-10 · 00:30 CET
LDLLL
WWLWLThe score model made a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.08 – 0.96 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 38.3% | 35.1% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Criciuma win | 31.8% | 34.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.6% | 41.1% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.1% | 21.5% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.7% | 48.5% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 28.5% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 39.3 / Criciuma 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ceara vs Criciuma in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.