Vila Nova FC vs Cuiaba
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-09 · 01:30 CET
WWWDW
WLWDLThe score model made a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.15 – 0.85 Cuiaba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 42.8% | 43.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.7% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Cuiaba win | 27.2% | 25.7% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.5% | 38.0% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 19.4% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.1% | 44.7% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 26.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 56.4 / Cuiaba 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.