Sport Recife vs Sao Bernardo
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-08 · 00:30 CET
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LWWDWThe score model makes a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.6% vs 66.2% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.49 – 1.04 Sao Bernardo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 47.5% | 50.0% | -2.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.7% | -0.9% |
| Sao Bernardo win | 26.7% | 23.4% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 49.1% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 28.4% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 52.3% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.8% | -6.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 39.1 / Sao Bernardo 26 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.