Ponte Preta vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-07 · 02:35 CET
LLWLL
WLLWWThe score model makes a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 62%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 68.8% vs 48.9% implied (+19.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.49 – 1.47 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta win | 12.3% | 10.1% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 19.2% | +6.8% |
| Juventude win | 61.8% | 70.7% | -9.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.2% | 51.1% | -19.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.5% | 30.0% | -16.4% |
| Both teams to score | 29.6% | 41.6% | -12.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 34.5% | -8.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ponte Preta 39 / Juventude 30.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.