Ponte Preta vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-07 · 02:35 CET
LDDLL
DDWDWThe score model made a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 63%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.47 – 1.50 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta win | 11.6% | 9.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 19.0% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Juventude win | 62.9% | 71.0% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.5% | 52.1% | -20.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.7% | 31.1% | -17.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 29.1% | 42.5% | -13.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 35.6% | -9.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ponte Preta 40 / Juventude 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ponte Preta vs Juventude in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.