CRB vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 23:00 CET
LWLWL
LLLWWThe score model made a CRB win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CRB 1.07 – 1.02 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB win | 36.2% | 41.7% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Criciuma win | 33.8% | 27.7% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.6% | 42.4% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 23.0% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 49.3% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 28.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CRB 53.1 / Criciuma 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.