America MG vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 21:00 CET
WLLLL
LLWLLThe score model made an America MG win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: America MG 1.73 – 0.78 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America MG win | 59.8% | 83.8% | -24.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 11.5% | +11.9% | ✗ |
| Ponte Preta win | 16.7% | 4.6% | +12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 68.0% | -22.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 45.8% | -21.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 39.4% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 46.3% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: America MG 47.9 / Ponte Preta 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.