Novorizontino vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 01:30 CET
WDLDW
WLWLWThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.39 – 0.90 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 48.4% | 57.3% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 25.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Sport Recife win | 24.3% | 16.9% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 46.7% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 26.8% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 47.0% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 31.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 54.1 / Sport Recife 36.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.