Nautico vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 01:30 CET
LDLWD
WDDLLThe score model made a Nautico win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.46 – 0.94 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 49.4% | 51.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Athletic Club win | 24.2% | 21.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 44.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 24.4% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 48.0% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 30.5% | -7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nautico 22.5 / Athletic Club 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.