Nautico vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 01:30 CET
WDDDW
WDWWLThe score model makes a Nautico win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.34 – 0.96 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 45.8% | — | — |
| Draw | 27.3% | — | — |
| Athletic Club win | 26.9% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.1% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.2% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nautico 20.8 / Athletic Club 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.