Goias vs Sao Bernardo
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 00:30 CET
LWWLL
LWWDWThe score model made a Goias win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goias 1.37 – 1.05 Sao Bernardo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 44.1% | 50.1% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Sao Bernardo win | 28.8% | 21.6% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 41.8% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 22.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 45.8% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 28.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goias 48.8 / Sao Bernardo 21.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.