Juventude vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-27 · 00:30 CET
WLLWW
LWLWLThe score model made a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventude 1.35 – 0.63 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 54.1% | 44.3% | +9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 29.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| CRB win | 17.6% | 25.9% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.8% | 41.8% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.9% | 22.7% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.8% | 48.4% | -13.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 28.8% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventude 25.3 / CRB 53.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.