Sport Recife vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-26 · 00:30 CET
DDWWL
DLWLLThe score model makes a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sport Recife win — 61.0% vs 52.3% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.76 – 0.78 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 61.0% | 52.3% | +8.7% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 27.0% | -4.2% |
| America MG win | 16.3% | 20.8% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 46.4% | +0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 26.6% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 49.5% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 31.9% | -4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 35 / America MG 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.