Sport Recife vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-26 · 00:30 CET
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WLLLLThe score model made a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.86 – 0.74 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 63.9% | 56.4% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 25.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| America MG win | 14.3% | 18.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 47.2% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 26.8% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 48.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 32.4% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 35.6 / America MG 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.