Sao Bernardo vs Nautico
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
WWDWL
LDLWDThe score model made a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.63 – 1.01 Nautico.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 52.1% | 42.4% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 29.5% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Nautico win | 23.5% | 28.1% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 45.6% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 26.1% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 51.5% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 31.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 19.9 / Nautico 20.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.