Sao Bernardo vs Nautico
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
LLWLD
WDDDWThe score model makes a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sao Bernardo win — 52.1% vs 42.3% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.63 – 1.01 Nautico.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 52.1% | 42.3% | +9.8% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 29.7% | -5.4% |
| Nautico win | 23.5% | 27.9% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 44.9% | +4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 25.1% | +2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 50.5% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 30.5% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 19.9 / Nautico 20.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.