Operario-PR vs Vila Nova FC
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 23:00 CET
WDWDL
WDWWWThe score model made an Operario-PR win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Operario-PR 1.35 – 1.14 Vila Nova FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR win | 41.7% | 42.8% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 30.5% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Vila Nova FC win | 31.8% | 26.7% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 44.2% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 24.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 50.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 30.1% | +4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Operario-PR 48.2 / Vila Nova FC 52.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.