Criciuma vs Fortaleza
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 23:30 CET
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WDWDDThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 25%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.09 – 0.66 Fortaleza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 45.8% | 47.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 30.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Fortaleza win | 22.2% | 22.1% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.4% | 37.8% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.0% | 19.2% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 31.7% | 43.2% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 26.3% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 43.7 / Fortaleza 19.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.