Criciuma vs Fortaleza
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-23 · 23:30 CET
WDLWD
LWDDDThe score model makes a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 25%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 74.6% vs 62.5% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.09 – 0.66 Fortaleza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 45.8% | 47.5% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 32.0% | 30.1% | +1.9% |
| Fortaleza win | 22.2% | 22.3% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.4% | 37.5% | -12.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.0% | 19.1% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 31.7% | 43.1% | -11.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 26.3% | +1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 43.7 / Fortaleza 19.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.