Cuiaba vs Goias
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 23:30 CET
LDDWW
DLWLLThe score model makes a Cuiaba win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 63.2% vs 56.1% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.10 – 0.81 Goias.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba win | 42.4% | 40.1% | +2.3% |
| Draw | 30.9% | 32.3% | -1.4% |
| Goias win | 26.7% | 27.6% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.8% | 36.0% | -6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.7% | 18.3% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 36.8% | 43.9% | -7.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 25.5% | -4.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cuiaba 38.5 / Goias 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.