Cuiaba vs Goias
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 23:30 CET
WDWLW
LWWLLThe score model made a Cuiaba win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.10 – 0.81 Goias.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba win | 42.4% | 38.6% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.9% | 34.7% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Goias win | 26.7% | 26.7% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.8% | 28.2% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.7% | 13.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.8% | 36.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 21.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cuiaba 38.3 / Goias 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.