Cuiaba vs Operario-PR
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-21 · 01:30 CET
LWDWL
WWDWDThe score model made a Cuiaba win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.26 – 0.82 Operario-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba win | 47.0% | 45.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 31.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Operario-PR win | 24.3% | 23.8% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 36.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 18.3% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% | 43.1% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 25.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cuiaba 38.5 / Operario-PR 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.