Avai vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-21 · 00:30 CET
DWLLW
DDDWWThe score model makes an Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 54.3% vs 49.7% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avai 1.13 – 1.14 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai win | 35.6% | 33.1% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 30.0% | -1.9% |
| Sport Recife win | 36.3% | 36.8% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 43.5% | -3.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 23.6% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 50.3% | -4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 30.2% | -2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Avai 51.4 / Sport Recife 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.