Londrina vs Atletico GO
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-20 · 00:30 CET
DLLLL
DWWDLThe score model makes a Londrina win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Londrina win — 38.5% vs 34.2% implied (+4.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Londrina 1.28 – 1.20 Atletico GO.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina win | 38.5% | 34.2% | +4.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 30.1% | -3.4% |
| Atletico GO win | 34.8% | 35.8% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 45.1% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 25.2% | -1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 51.8% | -1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 31.3% | -0.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Londrina 24.6 / Atletico GO 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.