Goias vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-19 · 02:35 CET
WDLWL
WLWWDThe score model makes an Juventude win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 22%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 77.7% vs 63.5% implied (+14.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goias 0.78 – 0.84 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 30.9% | 40.0% | -9.1% |
| Draw | 34.5% | 32.1% | +2.5% |
| Juventude win | 34.6% | 28.0% | +6.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 48.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22.3% | 36.5% | -14.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8.2% | 18.3% | -10.1% |
| Both teams to score | 30.6% | 44.1% | -13.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 25.5% | -5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goias 46.9 / Juventude 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.